- Brighton & Hove Albion FC and Brentford FC have transformed EPL transfer workings with a data driven approach which others are looking to emulate
- New research by Caerus shows that Bundesliga second tier, Switzerland, and South America all provide excellent value, while Ligue 1 should be avoided…
Caerus, a name well known behind the scenes in sport for its expertise in predictive analytics across global sporting markets, has produced in-depth data analysis on over 130 global football leagues and over 2000 teams to discover the best and worst leagues for transfer value.
Caerus founder Mike Adams explains: "As the use of data becomes more widespread, the type of data a club leverages for these insights will be a key determinant for the heights a club can reach. Fans only need to cast a glance in the direction of Brighton & Brentford to see what can be achieved when world-class analytics are applied to this marketplace”.
Caerus' proprietary modelling assesses which leagues are structurally undervalued, thus increasing the likelihood of players being sourced at a price that maximises the likelihood of transfer success on and off the pitch.
The proprietary models and machine learning algorithms that Caerus developed utilise on-pitch team performance, player ratings, market ratings, and situational factors such as home advantage or weather to create accurate ratings of relative team strength across the globe...
This is what they found…
Most “Undervalued” leagues (League Rating/av. Transfer Value)
1. 2. Bundesliga (0.79 / 868k)
2. Swiss Super League (0.45 / 859k)
3. Brazil Serie A (1.27 / 2.36m)
4. Argentina Primera (0.922 / 1.07m)
5. Ecuador Serie A (0.12 / 375k)
“Caerus League Ratings'' versus average transfer values in each league.
The ratings indicate how much, in goals, a league is better or worse than the average league in our global database, and when we combine this with the average transfer value of players from this league (via transfermarkt), we work out the best and worst value.
Above the line = overvalued, below the line = undervalue
So why does 2. Bundesliga offer the best transfer value?
"Germany does have a strong footballing pyramid. They also have the commendable 50+1 ownership rule. Potentially, the domestic economics of football artificially suppress prices," said Mike Adams, founder of Caerus.
"For example, Pascal Gross joined Brighton from FC Ingolstadt 04 II back in 2017. He has played over 200 times for Brighton since then, scored the club’s first ever Premier League goal and their first ever away European goal…all for a fee of only £3 million”.
In fact, Brighton & Hove Albion are probably the best-known proponents of a data driven transfer strategy:
- Moises Caicedo
Signed for €28.7m in 20/21 from Independiente (Ecuador)
Sold for €116m in 23/24 to Chelsea
- Alexis Mac Allister
Signed for €8m in 2019 from Argentinos Jrs. (Argentina)
Sold to Liverpool for €42m in 2023.
- Facundo Buonanotte
Signed for €6m from Rosario Central (Argentina)
Current market value €12m
- Valentin Barco
Signed from Boca Juniors for €10 million
At19, he is considered a significant talent
And it's not just Brighton who have seen the transfer value from these leagues :
- Assan Ouedraogo
Currently the biggest talent in Bundesliga II, playing for FC Schalke 04 at 17. He is wanted by Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Leipzig, and Brighton and valued at €8m on Transfermrkt.
- Manuel Akanji
Joined Borussia Dortmund in 2017/18 from FC Basel for €20m. They sold him on to Manchester City for a similar fee, where he’s seen his stock rise further.
- Julian Alvarez
Perhaps the biggest success story, he joined Man City for €21m and has won the treble, the World Cup, and contributed 12 G+As this season in the Premier League alone.
But it’s a different story when you look at transfer value from the big leagues in Europe.
Despite the often elevated fees, it's not the EPL at the bottom. It’s Ligue 1.
We can call it The PSG Effect.
Most “Overvalued” Leagues:
Ligue 1 (1.25 / 7.55m)
Italy Serie A (1.6 / 8.3m)
Spain La Liga (1.68 / 9.86m )
EPL (2.28 / 19.47m)
Saudi Pro League (-0.575 / 1.95m)
Why are these leagues overvalued?
"The big leagues in Europe are at the top of the financial pyramid in global football. Every selling club knows this, and a premium is likely to be placed on the sale. The buying clubs are willing payers of the premium given the financial rewards of success in those leagues" - Mike Adams, Caerus.
The reason Ligue 1 is the most overvalued league? Blame the PSG Effect.
"PSG and their infinite wealth famously overspend on transfers, and this impacts the average value across the league " - Mike Adams
PSG Examples:
- Bradley Barcola
Signed from Lyon for €45m but was only valued at around €18m.
- Goncalo Ramos
Signed on a loan deal with nearly €100m option to buy but valued at just half that.
With a net expense in the 23/24 season of €182m, PSG’s outlay is €150m more than the second biggest spenders, Nice, who themselves benefit from the largesse of the new Manchester United part-owner Jim Ratcliffe and INEOS.
ABOUT CAERUS
Predictive analytics for global sporting markets. Caerus was established in 2020 to power some of the industry's leading professional syndicates and has evolved to now provide expert predictive analytics, pricing, and risk management to global sports betting operators. Caerus prides itself on its state-of-the-art technology, which is low latency and robust, and its 24/7 tech support for clients, all backed by a Chief Technology Officer with a background in Google and Facebook. Caerus offers industry-leading pricing solutions for football player props markets, developed by specialist risk and trading desk professionals with years of experience in both leading professional syndicates and some of the biggest names in sports betting, such as Flutter, bet365, and Star Sports. Caerus can provide operators with accurate early market prices for 100+ global leagues and cup competitions and 15+ scorer markets with confidence, thanks to the cutting-edge proprietary models and machine learning algorithms it employs.
Media enquiries camilla@redknotcomms.com
More information http://www.caerusrisk.com
